Overview

The market has closed in the red for the first time in over a month today. As a turbulent week concludes, various elements have led to a downturn in the stock market, despite gains in other areas.

Major News & Events

[Weekly] U.S Crude Oil Inventories

On Wednesday, April 3rd, 2024, crude oil inventories experienced a rise. While analysts had anticipated a decrease of 0.300 million, the actual figures showed an increase to 3.210 million, slightly higher than the previous month's 3.165 million. This growth in inventories, surpassing expectations, suggests a reduction in demand. Despite a 0.16% decline on the day, oil prices still ended the week 4.36% higher.

[Weekly] U.S Initial Jobless Claims

On Thursday, April 4th, 2024, the number of U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims exceeded expectations. Analysts had predicted 213,000 claims, but the actual figure reached 221,000. This represents a significant rise from the previous week's 212,000 claims. Although the markets opened on a higher note following the announcement, they soon dropped by nearly 2%.

[March] U.S Nonfarm Payrolls

Today, the release of March's Nonfarm Payrolls data revealed a substantial surge in job creation, significantly exceeding expectations. The actual increase was reported at 303,000 jobs, nearly 43% above the anticipated 212,000, marking the fifth consecutive month surpassing forecasts. In response to this news, the stock market experienced a rise of 0.78%.

[March] U.S Unemployment Rate

Following the release of this month's Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate was also published, showing a decrease beyond expectations. The rate fell to 3.8%, lower than both the anticipated 3.9% and the rate of the previous month. This demonstrates the United States' economic resilience and strength over the recent months.

Do Kwon of Terraform Labs found Liable for Fraud

Today, in the civil case led by the SEC against Do Kwon, the jury ruled that Do Kwon and Terraform Labs were guilty of defrauding investors. This verdict comes more than two years after Luna & Terra's value plummeted to nearly zero, marking a long-awaited moment of justice. Despite this outcome, Do Kwon remains in custody in Montenegro, and his extradition has recently been annulled.

Markets Recap

U.S Stock Market

Following a notably turbulent week and an exceptionally volatile few months where stock prices barely paused, the stock market has recorded its first red close in over a month. The S&P 500 ended the day at 5,204.35, marking a decrease of 1.06%, with a fluctuation range of -2.3% from its highest to lowest point during the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed in the red at 38,904.05, down by 2.25%, experiencing a -3.15% swing from its peak to trough. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ managed to close at 18,108.45, falling by 0.97%, with Nvidia playing a crucial role in stabilizing the market to some extent. Amidst this backdrop, the Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts in the upcoming months, coupled with robust job data, hinting at a more bullish market trajectory in the near future. The ongoing enthusiasm around AI, especially within Nvidia and other tech companies, continues unabated, potentially driving significant gains in the tech sector and possibly uplifting the overall market.

Commodities

Gold, Silver, and Oil all concluded an exceptionally profitable week, with Gold persistently reaching new all-time highs and Oil gradually approaching its peak levels. Gold closed at $2,329.57, up 4.30% for the week, setting a new record high. Silver finished at $27.46, registering a 2.10% increase. Though Silver still has a significant distance from its historical peak, its price movement in recent years has been impressively strong. Oil wrapped up the week at $86.68, continuing its profitable trend. However, the ongoing rise in oil inventories could signal a nearing end to its bullish momentum. In parallel, as inflation decreases and the economy strengthens, the surging prices of Gold and Silver might begin to recede. This potential shift could reflect a change in investor sentiment, growing less pessimistic about the economy and market conditions.

Forex

The Dollar experienced a slight downturn at this week’s close, settling at $104.286, a decrease of 0.24%. This minor dip allowed for growth among other currencies measured against the Dollar. The EURUSD pair saw a rise of 0.44%, closing at 1.08365, while the GBPUSD pair observed a smaller increase of 0.13%, ending at 1.26364. As assets gain value amidst the economic recovery, the Dollar's weakening trend is likely to persist. Given the global interconnectedness of the Forex market, it's essential to monitor not just the U.S. economy but the worldwide economic landscape. As other nations advance in their recovery efforts, their currencies are expected to strengthen further against the Dollar.

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto markets have consistently demonstrated resilience, asserting their long-term presence, yet this week marks a rare occasion with Bitcoin closing in the red. After experiencing a series of exponential gains over several months, Bitcoin ended the week at $67,648, down by 5.10%. The past year has seen Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market enjoying sustained growth with minimal slowdowns. This momentum is anticipated to continue, especially as more spot ETFs receive approval. Ethereum, not immune to the market's volatility, concluded the week at $3,328, reflecting an 8.71% decline. Despite the remarkable growth witnessed across the crypto market, it remains highly volatile. Ethereum and various other cryptocurrencies are inching closer to their historical peaks, even as Bitcoin has already achieved a new high at $73,794. Tether Dominance (USDT.D) bucked the trend of recent months by posting a gain, finishing at 4.36%, up from the previous week's 4.00%. Tether Dominance is a critical metric as it indicates the proportion of Tether holdings within the entire market. Currently, the focus is on Bitcoin, with speculation rife about whether it will sustain its historical rally or face a significant pullback after weeks since its last major upward move.

Recap

The market, ever dynamic and full of surprises, has wrapped up another week teeming with news, volatility, and unexpected turns. While the week didn't fare well across the board, it's important to remember that periods of slowdown are natural, especially after rapid gains. For many traders and investors, this presents an opportune moment to buy in or initiate a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy to take advantage of lower prices. Conversely, the current market conditions may be seen by bears as a sign of weakness, potentially leading them to initiate short positions or sell off their holdings. Regardless of the market's direction, the essence of trading lies in navigating these shifts strategically. We hope your trading week was fruitful, and we're looking forward to what the next week brings!